Scenario-paper on EU Decarbonization Pathways

We are excited that our scenario-paper “Integrating Political Economy and Financial Markets in Qualitative Scenario Analysis to Elicit EU Decarbonization Pathways” (Co-authored by Marc-Philipp Bohnet, Philip Fliegel, Anne Schoenauer, Cosima van Mierlo, Maria Zioga and Achim Hagen) is now published in Earth System Governance Journal.

Check it out here.

We find that a successful low-carbon transition in the EU depends less on isolated “green finance” tools and more on credible, consistent policy frameworks that align financial market expectations with long-term climate goals.

Key findings:

• A successful (1.5 °C scenario) transition requires a credible, stable policy mix.

• Important policy levers that can push the system towards the 1.5 °C pathway are
  - Stable and predictable climate policies
  - Comprehensive climate risk data
  - ECB climate mandate

• Major barriers are
  - Political resistance (public protests, lobbying)
  - Difficulty implementing high CO₂ prices
  - Uncertainty about climate data and global coordination